Public History World Model
Pick a date in the public macro record. Write the memo, warning, watch, or hold recommendation an analyst could have made then. The model gets only the public data available at that cutoff and ranks the moves by the pressures each one shifts.
Good tests
If this shock lands, should the next move be publish, wait, escalate, or open a watch?
Weak tests
Who was right later, or what is the best answer using facts the cutoff could not know?
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Timeline
Known by cutoff
Evidence
Action test
Describe a macro shock, a public response, or both. The date stays fixed; only your branch is added after it.