Life Sciences
Drug programs unfold over years. A world model can learn that path from the clinical and regulatory record, then forecast what comes next for a program it has never seen.
It can ask:
- What is the next regulatory gate?
- When is the next material event likely to happen?
- Which programs look unusual compared with similar histories?
- Where is withdrawal pressure building before it becomes obvious?
Current work: Project Confirm Oncology
Project Confirm turns approvals, trials, submissions and labels into a changing model of the FDA oncology world. Whole drug programs were held out of training, so the model had to work zero-shot on assets it had never seen.
Across 17,703 events and 3,275 held-out windows, it reached 0.857 AUROC on the next regulatory gate and found a withdrawal signal a median of about 24 months early. In the Imbruvica backtest, we stopped the record in January 2020. The later withdrawal was still 40 months away.
See the scored results · Open the detailed report — review access
Where this goes
The FDA record is one world. Clinical development, trial operations, safety, manufacturing and commercial uptake create others. The aim is a model that can follow a program across all of them: not a static risk score, but a living view of what changed, what is likely to happen next, and which questions are worth asking now.