Simulated research portfolio
Paper trading with cash-inclusive returns. No real money is invested.
current
$959,250.47 portfolio value
As of 2026-11-03 · Built Nov 3, 2026, 4:32 PM PT · Funded Oct 16, 2026, 12:35 AM PT · Inception 2026-10-19
Current allocation and view
Power, manufacturing and selective chip exposure · The seven positions entered at the October 19 close under the October 16 allocation decision. Targets remain 90% invested and 10% cash; whole-share execution leaves cash slightly above that target. Eaton is the largest position, followed by TSMC, Jabil and Qualcomm. We continue to favor earnings durability and price discipline over owning every AI supplier.
Reviewed Oct 19, 2026, 4:39 PM PT · Decision Oct 16, 2026, 11:11 AM PT · View date 2026-10-19
| Symbol | Target | Rationale and conditions |
|---|---|---|
| ETN | 20.00% | Largest position: electrical equipment gives us a route from power demand to earnings, with a broader business mix than a pure data-center supplier. I accept its valuation premium but cap the exposure at 20%. Add: Orders convert to cash and margins hold as capacity expands. · Trim: Valuation rises faster than sustainable earnings, or the position exceeds its concentration limit. · Exit: Persistent backlog cancellations and weaker electrical margins break the demand-to-cash case. Evidence: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 |
| TSM | 15.00% | Core foundry position. The latest quarter supports leading-edge demand, but Taiwan exposure and future capacity spending keep this below the largest weight. Add: Leading-edge demand and cash returns stay strong as new capacity comes online. · Trim: The price runs ahead of earnings growth, or Taiwan and foundry exposure becomes too concentrated. · Exit: A lasting loss of process leadership, customer demand or access changes the earnings case. Evidence: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 |
| JBL | 15.00% | AI infrastructure manufacturing offers earnings growth at a lower modeled multiple than several direct AI suppliers. Thin margins and customer concentration limit the size. Add: Growth reaches GAAP earnings and cash, with a narrowing gap to adjusted claims. · Trim: A price increase absorbs the earnings upside, or manufacturing exposure grows too large. · Exit: Sustained margin deterioration or weak cash conversion invalidates the capacity-growth case. Evidence: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 |
| QCOM | 15.00% | Licensing and device silicon add a different earnings stream. I prefer its valuation to adding another expensive data-center hardware name, while retaining handset and customer-loss risk. Add: Auto and other device growth offset customer losses without eroding licensing cash generation. · Trim: The multiple rises without stronger sustainable earnings, or handset exposure becomes excessive. · Exit: Licensing economics weaken persistently and diversification fails to offset lost device revenue. Evidence: Source 1 · Source 2 |
| AMKR | 10.00% | Preferred packaging position over ASE at the current research valuations. Capital spending and cyclical utilization make 10% more appropriate than a core-sized position. Add: Packaging demand converts into better utilization, margins and cash after investment. · Trim: The price assumes durable peak utilization or exposure duplicates the foundry position too closely. · Exit: New capacity persistently earns inadequate returns or utilization and margins weaken together. Evidence: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 |
| GOOGL | 10.00% | Adds cloud and platform cash generation instead of another equipment supplier. AI investment and changes to Search economics warrant a moderate position. Add: AI and cloud revenue growth supports cash generation after capital spending. · Trim: The valuation assumes strong AI returns before cash generation supports them. · Exit: Search economics deteriorate persistently or rising investment fails to produce adequate returns. Evidence: Source 1 · Source 2 |
| VRT | 5.00% | Small growth position in power and cooling. The opportunity is attractive, but valuation and execution risk make this a satellite rather than a core holding. Add: Orders convert into durable revenue, margins and cash at an acceptable price. · Trim: The valuation leaves too little room for execution risk, or power-and-cooling exposure is too large. · Exit: Sustained order cancellations, poor cash conversion or margin erosion break the growth case. Evidence: Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 |
Cash 10.00%: Room for new ideas and adverse evidence. This is a deliberate starting reserve, not a prediction of a market decline; simulated cash earns no interest.
Comparison books: Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash · Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash
Performance
| Book | Daily P&L | Cumulative P&L | Return | Maximum peak-to-trough loss | Cash | Costs | Dividends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research portfolio | $24,851.73 | $-40,749.53 | -4.07% | -8.76% | $101,124.12 | $449.21 | $0.00 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | $2,355.75 | $-9,717.89 | -0.97% | -2.18% | $200,477.69 | $399.56 | $0.00 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | $23,734.20 | $-15,300.06 | -1.53% | -6.62% | $200,771.05 | $399.41 | $0.00 |
Holdings & cash
Cash $101,124.12 · Initial capital $1,000,000.00
| Symbol | Shares | Price / date | Value | Weight | Cost basis | Unrealized P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMKR | 2386.0 | $37.62 / 2026-11-03 | $89,761.32 | 9.36% | $99,999.51 | $-10,238.20 |
| ETN | 510.0 | $391.70 / 2026-11-03 | $199,767.01 | 20.83% | $199,764.83 | $2.17 |
| GOOGL | 290.0 | $280.03 / 2026-11-03 | $81,208.70 | 8.47% | $99,862.10 | $-18,653.40 |
| JBL | 531.0 | $271.70 / 2026-11-03 | $144,272.71 | 15.04% | $149,848.75 | $-5,576.04 |
| QCOM | 863.0 | $164.43 / 2026-11-03 | $141,903.08 | 14.79% | $149,831.27 | $-7,928.18 |
| TSM | 356.0 | $404.80 / 2026-11-03 | $144,108.80 | 15.02% | $149,673.12 | $-5,564.32 |
| VRT | 242.0 | $235.97 / 2026-11-03 | $57,104.74 | 5.95% | $49,896.30 | $7,208.44 |
Amkor Technology (AMKR): Preferred packaging position over ASE at the current research valuations. Capital spending and cyclical utilization make10% more appropriate than a core-sized position.
Eaton (ETN): Largest position: electrical equipment gives us a route from power demand to earnings, with a broader business mix than a pure data-center supplier. I accept its valuation premium but cap the exposure at20%.
Alphabet (GOOGL): Adds cloud and platform cash generation instead of another equipment supplier. AI investment and changes to Search economics warrant a moderate position.
Jabil (JBL): AI infrastructure manufacturing offers earnings growth at a lower modeled multiple than several direct AI suppliers. Thin margins and customer concentration limit the size.
Qualcomm (QCOM): Licensing and device silicon add a different earnings stream. I prefer its valuation to adding another expensive data-center hardware name, while retaining handset and customer-loss risk.
TSMC (TSM): Core foundry position. The latest quarter supports leading-edge demand, but Taiwan exposure and future capacity spending keep this below the largest weight.
Vertiv (VRT): Small growth position in power and cooling. The opportunity is attractive, but valuation and execution risk make this a satellite rather than a core holding.
Daily observations
| Book | Date | Value | Daily P&L | Daily return | Cumulative P&L | Cumulative return | Cash |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-16 | $1,000,000.00 | $0.00 | 0.00% | $0.00 | 0.00% | $1,000,000.00 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-19 | $999,550.79 | $-449.21 | -0.04% | $-449.21 | -0.04% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-20 | $993,520.18 | $-6,030.60 | -0.60% | $-6,479.82 | -0.65% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-21 | $1,011,332.02 | $17,811.84 | 1.79% | $11,332.02 | 1.13% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-22 | $961,782.50 | $-49,549.52 | -4.90% | $-38,217.50 | -3.82% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-23 | $967,774.32 | $5,991.82 | 0.62% | $-32,225.68 | -3.22% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-26 | $971,307.35 | $3,533.03 | 0.37% | $-28,692.65 | -2.87% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-27 | $1,000,694.10 | $29,386.75 | 3.03% | $694.10 | 0.07% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-28 | $1,024,068.07 | $23,373.97 | 2.34% | $24,068.07 | 2.41% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-29 | $1,008,607.88 | $-15,460.19 | -1.51% | $8,607.88 | 0.86% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-10-30 | $953,084.79 | $-55,523.09 | -5.50% | $-46,915.21 | -4.69% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-11-02 | $934,398.74 | $-18,686.05 | -1.96% | $-65,601.26 | -6.56% | $101,124.12 |
| Research portfolio | 2026-11-03 | $959,250.47 | $24,851.73 | 2.66% | $-40,749.53 | -4.07% | $101,124.12 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-16 | $999,600.44 | $-399.56 | -0.04% | $-399.56 | -0.04% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-19 | $1,002,982.23 | $3,381.79 | 0.34% | $2,982.23 | 0.30% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-20 | $1,005,673.03 | $2,690.80 | 0.27% | $5,673.03 | 0.57% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-21 | $1,009,902.95 | $4,229.92 | 0.42% | $9,902.95 | 0.99% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-22 | $1,000,343.83 | $-9,559.12 | -0.95% | $343.83 | 0.03% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-23 | $996,166.25 | $-4,177.58 | -0.42% | $-3,833.75 | -0.38% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-26 | $1,001,820.07 | $5,653.83 | 0.57% | $1,820.07 | 0.18% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-27 | $1,006,311.68 | $4,491.61 | 0.45% | $6,311.68 | 0.63% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-28 | $1,009,086.26 | $2,774.58 | 0.28% | $9,086.26 | 0.91% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-29 | $1,005,997.59 | $-3,088.66 | -0.31% | $5,997.59 | 0.60% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-10-30 | $991,716.50 | $-14,281.10 | -1.42% | $-8,283.50 | -0.83% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-11-02 | $987,926.36 | $-3,790.13 | -0.38% | $-12,073.64 | -1.21% | $200,477.69 |
| Broad market — 80% SPY / 20% cash | 2026-11-03 | $990,282.11 | $2,355.75 | 0.24% | $-9,717.89 | -0.97% | $200,477.69 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-16 | $999,600.59 | $-399.41 | -0.04% | $-399.41 | -0.04% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-19 | $1,008,948.45 | $9,347.86 | 0.94% | $8,948.45 | 0.89% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-20 | $998,020.30 | $-10,928.15 | -1.08% | $-1,979.70 | -0.20% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-21 | $1,011,468.77 | $13,448.48 | 1.35% | $11,468.77 | 1.15% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-22 | $954,252.28 | $-57,216.49 | -5.66% | $-45,747.72 | -4.57% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-23 | $952,384.67 | $-1,867.61 | -0.20% | $-47,615.33 | -4.76% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-26 | $970,045.99 | $17,661.32 | 1.85% | $-29,954.01 | -3.00% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-27 | $991,341.19 | $21,295.20 | 2.20% | $-8,658.81 | -0.87% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-28 | $1,025,403.43 | $34,062.24 | 3.44% | $25,403.43 | 2.54% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-29 | $1,029,143.26 | $3,739.83 | 0.36% | $29,143.26 | 2.91% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-10-30 | $981,202.69 | $-47,940.57 | -4.66% | $-18,797.31 | -1.88% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-11-02 | $960,965.74 | $-20,236.95 | -2.06% | $-39,034.26 | -3.90% | $200,771.05 |
| Fixed AI supply-chain control — 80% basket / 20% cash | 2026-11-03 | $984,699.94 | $23,734.20 | 2.47% | $-15,300.06 | -1.53% | $200,771.05 |
Calculation rules & assumptions
- Simulation only. Whole-share orders execute at the close of the first full regular session whose open follows the decision.
- Target weights apply when a decision executes; later market moves can exceed those weights.
- Raw closing marks, separate split adjustments, and dividends credited on ex-date; actual payment dates are unavailable.
- Gross dividends use an ex-date cash-credit simulation convention, not confirmed spendable broker cash. ADR fees and withholding are unmodeled.
- Dividends stay in simulation cash. No cash interest, taxes, borrowing, or automatic dividend reinvestment.
- Fractional entitlements from splits remain shares; cash-in-lieu is not estimated.
- Execution costs include the policy basis-point assumption and fixed charge on each filled order.
- Calendar supports 2020-2035 regular NYSE holidays and announced exceptional closures; unforeseen closures block missing-price sessions.
- Execution assumption: 5 basis points plus USD 0 per filled order, for every book.